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Bitcoin ?!
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It's the same difference between gold and tulip bulbs. One is useful to function as money, the other is not.
With the bitcoins, my coworker bought a piece of land, built a house with a pool and planted tulips in the garden.
Why not develop a predictive SW that studies the performance of shares and suggests based on mathematical models whether to invest or sell, how much to invest based on risk ? ??
en.wikipedia.org
The algorithm that predicts stock market trends
A team of American researchers has developed a statistical algorithm that allows us to predict, within certain limits, the performance of stocks.
Michael Rechenthin and his collaborators analyzed the fluctuations of the S & P500 index throughout 2005. It is a basket that contains all 500 Standard & Poor's shares and is considered representative of the entire American market. And with over 90,000 transactions per day, it is one of the most processed and offers analysts a wealth of data.
The researchers found no recurring pattern as long as the stock price fluctuates between the bid and ask values, i.e. those to which traders are willing to sell and those to which the market is willing to pay. But as soon as this barrier is broken, actions exhibit recursive and, to some extent, predictable behavior.
Predictive analytics - Wikipedia
The algorithm that predicts stock market trends
A team of American researchers has developed a statistical algorithm that allows us to predict, within certain limits, the performance of stocks.
Michael Rechenthin and his collaborators analyzed the fluctuations of the S & P500 index throughout 2005. It is a basket that contains all 500 Standard & Poor's shares and is considered representative of the entire American market. And with over 90,000 transactions per day, it is one of the most processed and offers analysts a wealth of data.
The researchers found no recurring pattern as long as the stock price fluctuates between the bid and ask values, i.e. those to which traders are willing to sell and those to which the market is willing to pay. But as soon as this barrier is broken, actions exhibit recursive and, to some extent, predictable behavior.
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One of the better long term predictive algorithms that I've come across was by Benjamin Cowen (mathematician) who created logarithmic regression curves to determine when to buy and sell Bitcoin. He recommends buying in the green zones and selling when it reaches the red zone, prior to the correction. This has worked very well over the past 10 years. We have just broken out of the green zone and appear to be headed to the red zone in a couple of years. The curves are drawn on a logarithmic scale which removes the spikes to show you the overall slow progression of the the Bitcoin price. The ideal price to buy is at the bottom of the green channel which is where the general public has panic sold most of their Bitcoin and the smart money is buying it up at heavily discounted prices. The red band is where most of the general public FOMO's in at the top in because they heard from their friends they made 300% last month and they don't want to miss out. The last peak into the red zone occurred at the height of the Bitcoin popularity in 2017 shown in the 2nd chart just before the crash. When all of your friends and people on the street are talking about buying something to make a quick buck, like tulips, real-estate, crypto, dot com stocks etc., it is a time to sell.
My rule is: Never be the last one to the party because the alcohol is all gone, the pretty girls have already left and the police are about to show up.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me what's backing the dollar? It used to be gold, but not since Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971. That's when the real inflation started and the debt increased dramatically after that. Then Kissinger in 1973 made a back room deal with the Saudi's and created the Petro dollar. But not any more. Then the dollar was backed by guns and the U.S. invaded all the countries who tried to sell their oil for something other than the dollar, like Iraq with Euros and Libya with gold dinars and Venezuela and Iran who got hit with economic sanctions and were booted out of the Swift system. But overuse of sanctions are having less of an effect that they once did, so that power is waning. The U.S. has gone from the world's greatest creditor nation to the world's greatest debtor nation in the past 40 years. What they are trying to do now is to try and print its way to recovery but that only gets them into more debt. The U.S. and every other country is headed to hyperinflation within 2-5 years. That is the great reset Klaus Schwab has planned for everyone. He hinted at this when he said "You will own nothing... and you will be happy about it.".
Maybe it's just me, but I don't trust globalists who claim they have my best interests at heart.
Anyway, we will always be in the hands of someone who can make a self-fulfilling profecy to make us falling down and get all our money...
AND the Fourth Industrial Revolution guy - but that's another story.
must be golf balls.
saw an interesting documentary this week which claimed that the real thing to watch is the manipulation of the gold price. because, despite the dropping of the gold standard, USA still buys a gold in big quantities - mmm I wonder what that's about? there again, i've also heard/real that fort knox is actually empty (and by extention the other four or five vaults around USA.
so, what would a graph of bitcoin/gold price/dollar debt look like? - - - just to stay on topic.
incidentaly, there is a great book called lords of finance : the bankers who broke the world - its about the rise of central banking and the first few central bankers (the fed, bank of england, etc) - probably a good background for why cryptocurrencies have come into existence.
but, just as bitcoin could be seen as a commodity, all currencies have become commodities as opposed to measures of the wealth of nations per se. bought and sold like tobacco in zimbabwe.
As far as I can tell Ft Knox still has the cage with the 1933 gold pour where they "repossessed" all of the public gold and made gold bars from it. These bars have a copperish hue to it. I'm 99% sure the rest of the gold is long gone (likely stolen in the 1970s). People suspect the Federal Reserve gave the gold to the banks to lease out to other countries. They did this to bring in a yearly revenue for the banks because the gold was just sitting there collecting dust and bankers don't like to see wealth doing nothing. That's why the Federal Reserve will not permit anyone, including the President from viewing Fort Knox. I find this odd because the Federal Reserve does not own the building or the gold so why should they have a say who can visit the building? It is public property. The last time an audit was done on Ft Knox was in 1953 under Eisenhower. Since then all audits were done by the Federal Reserve on paper without a visit to Ft Knox. They simply take last years audit and add or subtract the amount of gold that was supposedly transferred in or out. They have been doing that for the past 67 years. Recently the U.S Government has lost 7 of those paper audits which should sound alarm bells. In my opinion, the gold is long gone. Likely melted down into ingots and shipped to China.
All I can tell you is if the gold standard was re-instated to cover the U.S. debt (as of 2019), then gold would have to be priced at $50,000/oz. China, the world's largest gold miner, has been importing tons of gold for the past 10 years and have banned export of their own gold. They are estimated to have at least 20,000 tonnes of gold. Russia has slightly less. And the U.S. is suppose to have 7400 tonnes of gold. But as the saying goes "When the tide goes out, you'll be able to see who's been swimming without a bathing suit!". That's likely going to be the U.S. and it won't be a pretty site. When that happens, the dollar will tank and inflation will rocket to new heights (including commodities).
Thanks, I'll read it.
Commodities have intrinsic value, but fiat currencies don't. People only use fiat paper currency because they perceive it has value. You could wake up tomorrow and find out it's worthless. The U.S. because it has the world reserve currency, has been exporting its inflation to other countries via trade since 1971 when Nixon broke the Bretton Woods Agreement. When the Petro dollar fails, it's already dying, that inflation will come flowing back into the U.S. because those countries will no longer need to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil or sell. As ridiculous as it sounds, up until recently all countries had to use U.S. dollars to buy or sell their oil. When countries no longer need the USD for trade, then trillions of dollars will flow into the U.S. from these countries creating inflation because there are far more dollars chasing the same amount of goods. People will rush to their local coin stores hoping to exchange their soon to be worthless paper for silver or gold coins. They will likely find the stores closed and the owner long gone. Their other alternative is to pour their money into cryptos like Bitcoin, and those prices will soar too because there is a maximum of 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be produced. (I'm not recommending anyone buy cryptos).
Central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, are working on their own digital currencies, ones that they can control (create to infinity). These too will inflate and become worthless over time. They are doing this for nefarious reasons that I'd rather not get into.
Tip: If you want to know if gold or silver or Bitcoin will go up a lot, watch the USD (U.S. dollar index). If it falls through its support at 88.2, then it's lift off for these commodities because they have an inverse relationship to the price of the dollar. The USD has already lost 12% this year and that is huge. We will have to wait and see if it gets a bounce off of 88.2 or if it falls through it.
That's it from me. I've talked too much (as usual) and probably put a few people to sleep.
Well I Just woke up. And...some interesting points and detail. I have the ebook of Lords nudge nudge wink wink.
Maybe the 'under the mattress ' storage option has gone away too....and, man, am I glad the white horse isn't in that photo.....
I'm expecting a 40% to 50% drop in the price of Bitcoin. As you alluded to, the Bitcoin price has gone up too far too fast. I'd like to see it drop back to around 17.5k and build a base there before moving up. I blame Wall Street for pushing the price up so fast. We have billion dollar hedge funds starting their own Bitcoin funds and buying up huge amounts of Bitcoin and that is driving the price up. Maybe one day we will see Warren Buffet, Peter Schiff and Charlie Munger starting their own Bitcoin fund? (inside joke-they hate Bitcoin).
Bitcoin exists as a solution to a math problem. A new Bitcoin block is mined every 10 minutes (approx) and contains 6.25 Bitcoins, regardless of whether there are 1000 computers or 10 million computers working on the problem. It is always 10 minutes for the next Bitcoin block. It costs anywhere from $4000 to $50,000 to mine a single Bitcoin depending on your electricity rates. Like mining gold, mining Bitcoin is very expensive. Bitcoin exists as a mathematical model to solve the problem of double spending. Bitcoin exists just like Pi exists and RSA encryption exists. It is a solution to a problem, a very important problem.
Crypto currencies will do to finance what the Internet did to communications. You just don't know it yet.
Imagine it was 1990 and you were trying to describe what the Internet was to an AOL user, or someone using Compuserve. You were describing how things were going to be so much better with the Internet and they would willingly give up their AOL and Compuserve to get it. They would think you were crazy.
I'll give you a hint of what is in store for you. There will be no more brick and mortar banks. They will meet the same fate as Blockbusters and newspapers. Many millennials of today don't know what a newspaper is. They never had one delivered to their home and don't know what it's for. They've never had 2 pounds of newsprint thrown in their lap with 125 white pages that would take them a day to read. They don't fathom the concept of reporters hunting down a story and breaking real news. In 5 years we will walk down a street with our child and look at large brick buildings and your child will ask "What is that building daddy?". And you will answer "That is a bank where they used to keep cash for financial transactions.". And your daughter will ask "What is 'cash' daddy?".
The world you know today will not be recognizable 9 years from now. The globalists are reshaping the world with a plan they had in place for over 50 years. The fuse was lit on August 15, 1971 when Nixon went off the gold standard and ended the Bretton Woods agreement. The elite are destroying their old monetary system they created in 1694 and are replacing it. You will be a witness to the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever known, and it will not be an enjoyable experience for the 99% that are unprepared for the collapse of their way of life. The lock downs are just the start. As Klaus Schwab (World Economic Forum) has said "World Will “Never” Return To Normal After COVID" and "You will own nothing, and you will be happy.". They are using COVID to bring in their global reset. They will use COVID and the lockdowns to create hyperinflation to destroy your currency and your generational wealth that your family has created over the past 100 years. Once you have nothing, they will offer you the carrot of their new world order that you must embrace in order to survive. Think "1984". These are the megalomaniacs that are reshaping the world. No amount of "voting", protests or banging of pots will change their minds. For the past 10 years people have been divesting themselves of fiat and have been accumulating gold, silver, crypto and farmland. They know their currency will be destroyed and are looking for lifeboats to see them through the tsunami of money printing that is headed their way.
I wish I had better news for you. But that is why Bitcoin and other crypto currencies were created. It cannot be confiscated or seized by the bank or by the government and it is highly transportable. But crypto currencies is just one solution to what's coming. Imagine how you would prepare if you were stuck in Venezuela before their currency collapse. There is much planning to do.
Disclaimer: I would never suggest anyone buy Bitcoin at these high prices. Never invest more than you're willing to lose. I am not a financial adviser and you must do your own due diligence when investing.
So you don't need dollars or euros either.I don't need Bitcoin as I am neither a drug dealer, money launderer or ransomware author.
That not a corollary (a natural consequence or result) of his statement.
Apologies, it was a flippant remark, I was no way inferring that anyone (in this forum) who uses Bitcoin was any of those.
I just prefer currency to be backed up by a physical entity like gold. Also I just love the phrase "I promise to pay the bearer on demand ..." printed on banknotes.
I'd love to have a paper currency backed up by gold. We wouldn't be in the mess we are in now. But as I said earlier, when Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971 and terminated Bretton Woods agreement, the currencies of the world went from being backed by gold to being backed by nothing. That's what I meant when I said the fuse was lit back in 1971. Nixon had to do this because the Vietnam War racked up billions of dollars worth of debt and President Johnson & President Nixon just printed more U.S. dollars to cover it, which devalued the U.S. currency relative to other currencies like the Swiss Franc and the German Mark. France and Germany realized this and demanded to exchange their U.S. dollars which was being devalued for gold. France went as far as sending a destroyer to the NY harbor to get their gold back, which they did ($191 million). Gold back then was worth $35/oz. To prevent other countries from exchanging their U.S. dollars for gold, Nixon closed the gold window and terminated the Bretton Woods agreement which demanded all currencies be backed by gold. The U.S. needed to do this if they wanted to preserve their gold. Gold will be extremely important after the upcoming crash. Countries without gold reserves will collapse.
If you were alive in the 1970's you saw gold price rapidly rise from $35/oz to over $700/oz in 1980. A 2000% increase in less than 10 years. That was an excellent return for those who were awake at the time. Some of this price movement was due to speculation but a lot was also due to inflation. It wasn't so much that gold was rising in price, but the dollar was falling in purchasing power (being devalued). This was one of the times we discovered the U.S. wasn't swimming with a bathing suit! As a result of this money printing inflation rate hit almost 15% in 1980. That's when Paul Volker cranked up interest rates to nearly 20% to put the brakes on inflation. Yes boys and girls, the banks were giving 12% to 15% interest rates on your savings accounts. Those were the days because savers could actually live off of their savings and not touch the principle. The government could never hike interest rates today to stop inflation because of the massive debt load the U.S. is carrying. A mere 3% to 5% increase in the interest rates means 100% of the revenues the government collects from its citizens and tariffs will go to just paying the interest on the debt. They would have no money left to run the country. Since 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created, the U.S. government could no longer print its own money, but instead had to borrow it with interest from the Federal Reserve, a Rothschild controlled central bank. Much of the wealth was drained out of the U.S. and given to foreign bankers when they allowed the bankers (Federal Reserve) to create money out of thin air and then be forced to pay them with the work and sweat of the nation. Most people still do not realize that 100% of the Federal income tax collected from its citizens over the past 107 years goes to Federal Reserve (foreign bankers) to pay the interest on the debt that the government borrowed from the Federal Reserve, from money that the Federal Reserve created out of thin air. The Federal Reserve is not Federal and they have no reserves! It was no coincidence that the Income Tax act and the Federal Reserve act were both created in 1913. You can't have one without the other. The Income Tax act and the IRS (non-govt agency) is the conduit used to funnel money from the citizens back to the foreign bankers (Federal Reserve). Americans who pay Federal income tax, say 33%, are working 33% of their time every year for foreign bankers and don't even know it. If the Federal Reserve was never created in 1913 (we can thank Woodrow Wilson for that), then there would be no income tax and this wealth would have stayed in the pockets of Americans. For more info on the Federal Reserve I'd recommend reading "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin.
The U.S. (and other countries) are currently between a rock and a hard place.
1) Rock: They can either continue to print money with reckless abandon and keep things going until the currency hyperinflates, or
2) Hard Place: Cut back government spending (military, government services, pensions, handouts) and try to attempt to balance the budget which will turn the country into a Max Max scenario where everything shuts down (few police and local government workers because no money to fund them) and people starve and create their own fiefdoms in order to survive.
Those are the two options that await us this decade. The government chose option #1. Enjoy the ride.