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My prediction on Brexit
- Thread starter Beja
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Not everywhere...in certain countries a referendum is just an indication for the politicians what the voters want. Then the politicians may decide to enforce it or not.
It's also called poll
I think Leaving is a good thing, i dont think it will lower immigration, we as an island nation have always needed this and i dont think the '£350,000,000' we send to the EU each week will be see as we will have to use it to pay the farmers etc. But i do believe the EU as a whole was never willing to compromise and change, many nations have been pushing for change within the EU and it just doesn't happen because the EU Elite do not want it (politicians). The UK voting to leave should send a shock to the top of the EU that people will make difficult decisions that will affect their wealth etc when they feel there are no other choices, and if the EU doesn't change i believe more countries will leave.
Whoever this being said, i dont think leaving the EU means we wont work as close with EU nations, this will all be down to the negotiations that happen, i was very happy when the UK was part of the common market, but the EU is expanding daily and taking more powers from the individual countries that make up the EU, if this continues there are only 3 ways it can go:
1. There becomes a United States of Europe (and no individual countries).
2. It moves back to a common market type partnership.
3. The EU collapses due to division between what individual countries want/need and what the EU is willing to give.
I have been upset with a lot of the media in the UK saying people who wanted to leave are racist or not very well informed or not well educated, well i have never been racist and have many friends from many different countries and religions, i have researched all the options and have a Masters Degree so i think the sweeping generalisation statements do not help.
What is needed now is for the UK to unite and work with Europe to make this process the best it can be for all.
Whoever this being said, i dont think leaving the EU means we wont work as close with EU nations, this will all be down to the negotiations that happen, i was very happy when the UK was part of the common market, but the EU is expanding daily and taking more powers from the individual countries that make up the EU, if this continues there are only 3 ways it can go:
1. There becomes a United States of Europe (and no individual countries).
2. It moves back to a common market type partnership.
3. The EU collapses due to division between what individual countries want/need and what the EU is willing to give.
I have been upset with a lot of the media in the UK saying people who wanted to leave are racist or not very well informed or not well educated, well i have never been racist and have many friends from many different countries and religions, i have researched all the options and have a Masters Degree so i think the sweeping generalisation statements do not help.
What is needed now is for the UK to unite and work with Europe to make this process the best it can be for all.
Hi Stulish,
In my opinion it's not a problem between EU and its individual countries as you said.. this is a little strange because EU is nothing but the collection of these countries. even the EU government and parliament is in fact the EU members including Britain. But Britain's never been full member in terms of obligations and full integration as other nations.. you kept your national currency, you didn't enroll or participate in the Schengen Visa.. etc. And I don't what else..
Back to the problem and as I mentioned, it's not between EU and its individual counties for the above reasons, but its between EU and its PEOPLES. Time's changed and the one who is dictating history and events today are not conquers or emperors or kings, or even (elected) leaders who immediately highjack the will of voters as soon as they get to power.. but history today is being written and dictated by the individual and normal citizens.. by the ordinary man-in-the-street. political establishments around the world couldn't understand this reality, that they are living in a new environment and they must adapt themselves to it, or (leave) as all creatures who (left) because they couldn't reconcile with the challenges of their new environment.
In my opinion it's not a problem between EU and its individual countries as you said.. this is a little strange because EU is nothing but the collection of these countries. even the EU government and parliament is in fact the EU members including Britain. But Britain's never been full member in terms of obligations and full integration as other nations.. you kept your national currency, you didn't enroll or participate in the Schengen Visa.. etc. And I don't what else..
Back to the problem and as I mentioned, it's not between EU and its individual counties for the above reasons, but its between EU and its PEOPLES. Time's changed and the one who is dictating history and events today are not conquers or emperors or kings, or even (elected) leaders who immediately highjack the will of voters as soon as they get to power.. but history today is being written and dictated by the individual and normal citizens.. by the ordinary man-in-the-street. political establishments around the world couldn't understand this reality, that they are living in a new environment and they must adapt themselves to it, or (leave) as all creatures who (left) because they couldn't reconcile with the challenges of their new environment.
Hi Beja,
Thanks for the reply, i can agree that the problem is between the EU and the people, and i do not think the UK is the only country that has a high number of its population thinking the EU neds to change, the problem is the political elite who run the EU do not want it to change. The UK never adopted the Euro, and a few years ago people were shouting and saying it was the worst thing the UK ever did, but then the Banking crisis of 2008 hit and because we never adopted the Euro we could change our interest rates to help the country and also use quantitative easing, the problem with the Euro being adopted across the Euro-zone is it limits what individual countrys can do when something like this happens, as we have seen with Spain and especially Greece.
So i dont think further integration into the EU would be a good thing as i said, but this seems to be happening, right before everyone's eyes and we can not seem to stop it.
There were so many lies from both sides of the campaign here in the UK it was always difficulty to know the truth from the 'statistical truth' below is a link from Italy that seems to show some of the thought process:
https://youtu.be/i9cLwoTkWes
I don't think the UK leaving the EU will make everything better, but i dont think staying in the EU would either, but by leaving it gives more control back to the UK government, hopefully this wont be seen by our European neighbors as racist or inward looking and something positive will happen out of it.
Stu
Thanks for the reply, i can agree that the problem is between the EU and the people, and i do not think the UK is the only country that has a high number of its population thinking the EU neds to change, the problem is the political elite who run the EU do not want it to change. The UK never adopted the Euro, and a few years ago people were shouting and saying it was the worst thing the UK ever did, but then the Banking crisis of 2008 hit and because we never adopted the Euro we could change our interest rates to help the country and also use quantitative easing, the problem with the Euro being adopted across the Euro-zone is it limits what individual countrys can do when something like this happens, as we have seen with Spain and especially Greece.
So i dont think further integration into the EU would be a good thing as i said, but this seems to be happening, right before everyone's eyes and we can not seem to stop it.
There were so many lies from both sides of the campaign here in the UK it was always difficulty to know the truth from the 'statistical truth' below is a link from Italy that seems to show some of the thought process:
https://youtu.be/i9cLwoTkWes
I don't think the UK leaving the EU will make everything better, but i dont think staying in the EU would either, but by leaving it gives more control back to the UK government, hopefully this wont be seen by our European neighbors as racist or inward looking and something positive will happen out of it.
Stu
This is how the UK works, the Government can opt not to enact the referendum result.
So this is how it is.. But here it was the government that called for the referendum therefore it should respect the output.. Sorry I mean the outcome.
In an ideal World, I would have... STOP: there are no "ideal things" on this Planet (on the other I do not know, I never moved from this).
Unfortunately boundaries exist, different languages exist, etc.
Despite I am in favor of direct democracy (no more Deputies who do not represent the citizens), I think that so big decisions (in or out...) need AT LEAST the consent of 75% of citizens. You should not exit from EU because ONLY 50.00001% of Brits decided so.
In addition, "union is strength"; what happened to USSR Countries?
Finally... I don't care: I do not even know how my neighbor feels, and you? (no, I'm not asking if you know how MY neighbor feels
)
Unfortunately boundaries exist, different languages exist, etc.
Despite I am in favor of direct democracy (no more Deputies who do not represent the citizens), I think that so big decisions (in or out...) need AT LEAST the consent of 75% of citizens. You should not exit from EU because ONLY 50.00001% of Brits decided so.
In addition, "union is strength"; what happened to USSR Countries?
Finally... I don't care: I do not even know how my neighbor feels, and you? (no, I'm not asking if you know how MY neighbor feels
)
You have nothing to worry about. Vote or no vote, the UK will NOT be allowed to leave the EU. It will never happen.
I don't think so. The UK will be allowed to leave the EU.
Although I agree that it probably won't happen. IMHO I think that the pro brexit politicians only wanted leverage over the EU to renegotiate the terms. They never foresaw that the referendum would be in favor of the brexit.
You are already seeing the aftermath of this with the postponing of article 50 and the resignation of Nigel Farage.
I believe the UK will leave the EU, and in the long run be better off, the UK is under no obligation to enact article 50 until it wants too, and this will be after some negotiations. The EU limits who everyone can trade with and by doing so limits itself. Working together is what everyone wants, and i think the UK wants to stay part of the single market, however if some of the politicians from other countries want to act in a small minded way because the UK wants to leave then i ultimately believe it will back fire. The UK is a consumer nation and imports alot more from the EU than it exports.
and if some EU leaders start to impose extra sanctions (taxes) then the UK will do the same and the overall effect would be to hurt the remaining EU countries exports.
The UK has already been approached by Canada, USA, India, New Zealand, Australia and 6 other nations to negotiate trade deals, and the EU is only a small percentage of world trade.
Yes to begin with the UK will have extra problems to overcome due to uncertanty in the financial markets meaning the GBP will fall and stockmarkets will vary more than usual, but after negotiations have finished i believe the UK will be in a better position overall.
and able to decide its future direction.
The elephant in the room is China. The EU, Canada, India, etc. do not have a free trade deal (like FTA, NAFTA, TPP etc) with China yet they all do a massive amount of trade with China. You do not need a free trade deal in order to trade with another country. Any country that signs up for a "free trade deal" gives up part of their sovereignty because now they have to abide by an agreement that is decided through arbitration, an outside party. That is why China is reluctant enter into the TPP agreement, and rightfully so. Why should Brussels or the U.S. dictate what China, or any other country for that matter, is allowed to do within its own borders?
I could go on for hours about the real reason behind the TPP and NAFTA, and it has nothing to do with "free trade" and I'd rather not delve into the matter on this forum. Let me just say it is highly unlikely that the UK will be allowed to leave the EU, even though the UK would be a great deal more prosperous if they did. Brussels will throw roadblock after roadblock to delay the Leave proceedings. The Leave side will be deluged in paperwork. The longer the Exit takes, the less likely it will happen. I suspect the next government of England will be elected on the promise to have another referendum, and this time the Stay side will win. If the UK leaves the EU, other countries will want to do the same. The EU cannot be allowed to break up. The people who designed the EU back in the 1950's will not want to see their plan fail after 60 years of hard work.
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It is true the EU does not want to break up, but i think the longer the UK leave it to invoke artilce 50 the more the other countries populations will want a similar type referendum, i think that is why the EU want the UK to invoke quickly. They also want to take a hard stance on the UK to try to stop others from leaving, but i think this will hurt the EU as much if not more than the UK in the long run.